The Milwaukee Brewers are starting Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, and while it's not official, Logan Henderson is likely to start in Game 2.
However, it may not be as simple as just starting the Brewers' two best arms in Games 1 and 2. Despite the bye, Pat Murphy refused to commit to Henderson in Game 2. He said the phrase "subject to change" when describing his pitching plan for Games 1 and 2. Why would the Brewers not throw their No. 2 starter in Game 2 when he's ready to go?
Well, it's because it's the kind of thing the Brewers do. Last season, the Brewers essentially threw three bullpen games in the National League Division Series. Murphy is not scared to make an unconventional move and has a bullpen with some Swiss Army knives in it. The Padres will have Michael King in Game 2, and if the Brewers win Game 1, they may feel comfortable saving Henderson for a road start. Between Henderson, Robert Gasser and Dustin May, Henderson is the best on the road.
The Brewers' primary bulk options in a bullpen game would be Gasser and May. Gasser would seemingly get the nod as the bulk option with a well-rested bullpen. If Henderson starts in Game 2, then Gasser and the bullpen would seemingly be asked to go in Game 3. The only problem with that is that Gasser is much better at American Family Field than he is on the road.
Gasser also struggles against righties, and the Padres lineup is very righty-heavy. If the Brewers want to give him the best chance to succeed, letting him pitch at home may be the best option.
Gasser or May could both make a traditional start as well, but it's very likely Murphy takes a similar approach to last season's NLDS and sees them as bulk options behind an opener. Shane Drohan, Chad Patrick, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, and Kyle Harrison can all give the Brewers multiple innings, and it's hard to imagine the Brewers not leaning on their bullpen with so many question marks around Gasser and May.
The reality is, the Brewers may decide what to do in Game 2 after Game 1 ends. If the Brewers win, they could get cute and try to squeeze out a win with the bullpen and either Gasser or May. If they lose Game 1, Henderson would be the only right option to start Game 2, needing to salvage at least one game at home.
If Gasser and May had shown more consistency, then the Brewers would not even consider anything like this, and they still might not. However, there is an argument to made that the Brewers would be better off saving Henderson for a road start if they think they can squeeze out a win at home without him.
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