The San Diego Padres will be starting Robbie Ray and Michael King in the first two games of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Padres' choices for Game 1 were essentially Ray, Casey Mize or Randy Vásquez. With King and Nick Pivetta both starting in the Wild Card Series, they would have been on short rest. King will be on four days of rest for Game 2 on Sunday.
Of the Padres options to start Game 1, Ray is clearly the best. He has a 5.02 ERA since being acquired by the Padres, but has had his moments. When he's going right, he is as good as anyone in the game. The Padres will be facing Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1, so they will need Ray to be sharp.
Ray has faced the Brewers just once this season, and it came in August when the Brewers were dealing with some key injuries. Ray gave up two earned runs in four innings, but the Padres won in extra innings. The Brewers are much better against right-handed starters than southpaws, so starting Ray gives them a matchup advantage as well.
King is the obvious choice for Game 2. He is the Padres best starting pitcher, and pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Brewers in his only appearance against them this year. However, Game 2 is in Milwaukee, and King is better at home than he is on the road. His earned run average on the road is nearly one run higher than at home.
The problem is, the Padres may not have a choice when it comes to starting King in Game 2. They are not going to keep him stashed for Game 3 and then risk not having him start in a potential Game 5. Additionally, Pivetta would be on short rest if he were to go in Game 2.
A Game 3 starter has not been announced, but it's safe to assume it will be Pivetta.