The Boston Red Sox are nine games below .500, but their odds of making the postseason are higher than you'd typically expect for a club at this point in the season.
The Red Sox are 37-46 on the season right now heading into their contest against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. Boston is officially in the second half of the season and is fortunate to be riding a five-game winning streak right now, including a four-game sweep over the New York Yankees.
Right now, the Red Sox are 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, in large part because the American League has simply been bad this season. Despite the fact that the Red Sox are nine games below .500, Boston actually has a 19.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs and shared on X by MLB Network's Jon Morosi.
Red Sox postseason probability is now 19.9 percent, per Fangraphs," Morosi wrote.
Red Sox postseason probability is now 19.9%, per @fangraphs.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) June 30, 2026
If the Red Sox can somehow turn this season all the way around and make the playoffs, it will be a miracle. One thing that is a bit shocking is the fact that the Red Sox have significantly higher odds of making the playoffs than their opponent on Tuesday night in the Nationals. Washington is 43-43 on the season, but has just a 4.1 percent chance of making it.