William Contreras has been one of the best players in baseball ever since he joined the Milwaukee Brewers, and now he can say he helped deliver a championship to the city and won World Series MVP.
Contreras has a $15.5 million club option for next season. If the Brewers decline it, he will be arbitration-eligible. However, after next season, he will be a free agent, and history suggests that the Brewers could shop him.
Just look at other stars the Brewers felt like they had no chance of retaining on the open market. Josh Hader, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Corbin Burnes were all traded at their peaks, a year before free agency. Why would Contreras be any different?
He is due for a huge payday when he hits the open market. Trading him this offseason could maximize what the Brewers get back, but is that really the right move? Winning a World Series may change how the Brewers look at certain players, even if their formula would say to trade them.
Without Contreras, there is no way the Brewers win the World Series, but the team is unlikely to abandon the recipe that got them a championship. The formula says it's time to trade Contreras, but perhaps they know that his value cannot be measured simply by stats.
He is a leader in the clubhouse, and the Brewers have made rare exceptions to their formula in the past. The most recent exception was Willy Adames. Instead of trading him one year before free agency, the Brewers kept him, knowing they did not have a replacement and his value in the clubhouse was too high.
The Brewers may not want to blow up the clubhouse chemistry after winning a World Series, so perhaps they bite the bullet and simply lose Contreras as a free agent later. However, they will surely listen to any offers they get.
There is also a world where winning the World Series forced the Brewers to do something they don't usually do and pay Contreras. Perhaps they view him like they did Christian Yelich, who signed the largest deal in franchise history after winning MVP. Perhaps he truly is a player the Brewers cannot move forward without.