The last of the four Game 1s on Saturday ended up being one of the most entertaining games of the year, with a very controversial moment in the ninth inning.
Trailing by one run, Ty France launched a ball into left field for what looked to be a go-ahead two-run home run. However, the ball hit the roof of American Family Field, which, fortunately for Brewers fans, was closed for Game 1, and came down into the glove of Jackson Chourio for an out.
The eye-test says that the ball was gone and would have given the Padres the lead. However, the actual numbers do not support the claim. There's no way to actually know where the ball would have landed, but historical metrics can give fans an idea.
“I think so," said Padres manager when asked if he thought the ball was a home run, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Curt Higg. "You never know. You look at the exit velo, look at launch angle, you plug AI into it and figure out how far it will go.”
The ball was hit at 105.3 mph with a 49-degree launch angle. According to Statcast, it would have been a home run in Daikin Park, but that only accounts for where the ball landed: 325 feet into left field. However, according to Baseball Savant, there has never been a ball hit at 105 mph with a 49-degree launch angle hit for a home run.
No matter what the numbers say, it's hard for anyone watching the game to see what happened and think that the ball was going to be an out if it did not hit the roof. However, it's possible the camera angles created an interesting optical illusion for viewers at home.
In the stadium, everyone seemed to have a different opinion. After the game, William Contreras said he thought it was a home run. Brewers manager Pat Murphy thought it was going to be a foul ball, as did Brewers closer Trevor Megill. France thought it was a home run. However, under the ground rules, it was ruled an out.
According to American Family Field's ground rules, a ball that strikes the roof truss or roof cable over fair territory is in play and is an out if caught by the batter. If it struck in foul territory, it would have been a dead ball.
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