The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are very likely to face off in the Wild Card round of this year's postseason.
There is still a chance that the Yankees pass the Tampa Bay Rays and win the American League East in the final week, but the likeliest scenario is still that the Yankees will face the Red Sox. The Red Sox will start Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez and Payton Tolle, in all likelihood.
The Yankees will start Cam Schlittler and Max Fried for sure, but they should not start Gerrit Cole if they go to a Game 3. Cole is a Cy Young Award winner and one of the best pitchers of this generation. However, they need to keep him off the mound against the Red Sox for one reason: He does not pitch well against them at all.
Since 2020, when Cole joined the Yankees, he has had a 5.93 ERA against the Red Sox in the regular season. In his postseason career, he has faced the Red Sox twice, allowing seven runs in eight innings. Cole has a 3.67 ERA in 20 starts this season.
Cole has allowed 15 earned runs in his last four starts. Ideally, the Yankees would not need to play a Game 3 against the Red Sox, but if they do, Carlos Rodón should get the nod.
Fried and Schlittler are no-brainers to start Games 1 and 2. Keeping Cole off the mound in a win-or-go-home Game 3 would be controversial, but history is not on his side. Rodón is having a solid season and has a 1.86 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox this season. Cole gave up four earned runs and seven hits in his lone start against Boston this year.